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          <h1 class="post-title" itemprop="name headline">ETF定投数据分析6——蒙特卡洛算法2</h1>
        

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        <p>春节过完了，我们继续量化投资学习之旅。先获取更多的数据，我定投的两个etf基金分别建立于2012年和2013年，我们以最晚的纳指etf的创立时间2013年5月1日为起始点，收集股价数据。<br>先收集数据，用之前用过的函数。只用运行一次。</p>
<figure class="highlight python"><table><tr><td class="gutter"><pre><span class="line">1</span><br><span class="line">2</span><br><span class="line">3</span><br><span class="line">4</span><br><span class="line">5</span><br><span class="line">6</span><br><span class="line">7</span><br><span class="line">8</span><br><span class="line">9</span><br><span class="line">10</span><br><span class="line">11</span><br><span class="line">12</span><br><span class="line">13</span><br><span class="line">14</span><br><span class="line">15</span><br><span class="line">16</span><br><span class="line">17</span><br><span class="line">18</span><br></pre></td><td class="code"><pre><span class="line"><span class="comment">#获取从2013年5月15日至2019年2月1日的数据</span></span><br><span class="line">    beginTime = <span class="number">20130515</span></span><br><span class="line">    endTime = <span class="number">20190201</span></span><br><span class="line">    etf300 = etfdata.GetHistoryData(<span class="string">&quot;510300&quot;</span>, beginTime, endTime)</span><br><span class="line">    etfnas = etfdata.GetHistoryData(<span class="string">&quot;513100&quot;</span>, beginTime, endTime)</span><br><span class="line">    print(<span class="built_in">len</span>(etf300), <span class="built_in">len</span>(etfnas))</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="comment">#保存文件</span></span><br><span class="line">    etf300.to_csv(<span class="string">&quot;df_300_hist.csv&quot;</span>)</span><br><span class="line">    etfnas.to_csv(<span class="string">&quot;df_nas_hist.csv&quot;</span>)</span><br><span class="line"><span class="comment">#读取数据</span></span><br><span class="line">    df_300 = pd.read_csv(<span class="string">&quot;df_300_hist.csv&quot;</span>)</span><br><span class="line">    df_nas = pd.read_csv(<span class="string">&quot;df_nas_hist.csv&quot;</span>)</span><br><span class="line">    <span class="comment">#只保留收盘价</span></span><br><span class="line">    length1 = <span class="built_in">len</span>(df_300)</span><br><span class="line">    length2 = <span class="built_in">len</span>(df_nas)</span><br><span class="line">    df_300 = df_300.loc[<span class="number">0</span>:length1, [<span class="string">&quot;date&quot;</span>, <span class="string">&quot;close&quot;</span>]]</span><br><span class="line">    df_nas = df_nas.loc[<span class="number">0</span>:length2, [<span class="string">&quot;date&quot;</span>, <span class="string">&quot;close&quot;</span>]]</span><br><span class="line">    print(<span class="built_in">len</span>(df_300), <span class="built_in">len</span>(df_nas))</span><br></pre></td></tr></table></figure>
<p>输出结果:<br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/01.png"><br>搞定。<br>然后用实盘的策略模拟一次试试(代码见 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://github.com/zwdnet/etfdata">https://github.com/zwdnet/etfdata</a>)<br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/02.png"><br>共交易139次，貌似结果也不太好。<br>再自己看代码，work函数有bug，折腾半天，重写吧。分成几个函数，画个流程图。<br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/03.png"><br>将一个长的函数拆分成几个函数，终于算的像是对的了。<br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/04.png"><br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/05.png"><br>坚持定投近六年，收益大概是30%左右，年化收益率4.7%，比余额宝高不了多少，但是最大收益曾达到60%左右，如果增加止盈和止损策略，会不会更好一些？<br>下面就来模拟一下增加了止盈止损策略后的效果。<br>改一下模拟交易函数，增加止盈操作，策略用最简单的:止盈点10%，即收益率上升到最高点以后下跌10%，卖出一半。再跌10%再卖一半，到底部反弹超过10%，全部买回。结果老是调不对，调了几个晚上，终于看起来像是对了。<br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/06.png"><br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/07.png"><br>看图形和数据，都比不止盈好一点，但是计算的那些数据还是有问题。再改改看。另外，两个etf的相关系数很低，也就是说一个etf在跌时另一个可能还在涨，分开进行止盈操作会不会更好？<br>折腾了好几天，终于调通了，结果貌似还可以，但还不如总的一起止盈的？<br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/08.png"><br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/09.png"><br>单独画出两个个股的收益率曲线看看。<br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/10.png"><br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/blog0100-mtkletf2/11.png"><br>都有那种收益率一下子上升数倍又回落的情况。应该是终止止盈的策略那里的问题，我的策略是触发终止止盈后，将止盈得到的钱一次性又买回相应的个股。分期投入会不会更好？<br>写到这里，我跟交易模拟函数挣扎了好几天，结果总是不正确，而且函数也写得越来越复杂，越来越难改。另外算出来的回测数据貌似也有问题。于是我试了一下在某在线平台上写策略，然后回测，看算出来的数据是否跟我一致，但是有很多限制，没有完成。我也试了一些开源的量化交易框架，如vn.py, backtrader等，有的手机装不上，有的看了下用着好复杂。现在我决定重构交易模拟和回测的部分，弄好了再继续了。<br>我发文章的三个地方，欢迎大家在朋友圈等地方分享，欢迎点“在看”。<br>我的个人博客地址：<a href="https://zwdnet.github.io/">https://zwdnet.github.io</a><br>我的知乎文章地址： <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.zhihu.com/people/zhao-you-min/posts">https://www.zhihu.com/people/zhao-you-min/posts</a><br>我的微信个人订阅号：赵瑜敏的口腔医学学习园地<br><img src="https://zymblog-1258069789.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/other/wx.jpg"></p>

      
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